Finance in a Flash: Everyone Needs a Dragon

Written by Paul Feudo on . Posted in Finance, Magic Culture

Finance in a Flash: Everyone Needs a Dragon

Paul Feudo

Paul Feudo started playing Magic in 1999 and became fascinated by the financial aspect of the game a few years later. He recently gave up the competitive dream and became focused solely on trends in the Magic economy. Follow him on twitter @plfeudo.

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Thundermaw Hellkite is down to $10 here on Legit MTG. To use a gimmick from the 06010 podcast, ‘The hate has gone too far.’ This card seems very good against most of the field, and will eventually find a home, giving red decks a way to fly over Thragtusk, and swing through various angels and spirits. It is very good against midrange and controlling strategies, which is where most of the hype is after the format’s opening weekend didn’t end with infinite Zombies at the top tables. I expect the card to finally get its time in the spotlight over the next few weeks as the format begins to evolve. Get them while they’re cheap.

Quick Hits

1. I was flat out wrong about Angel of Serenity. The casting cost was what turned me off about the card, which happens to be irrelevant when you’re reanimating it or ramping to it. If some sort of ramp deck becomes viable along with reanimator continuing its initial success, this could be one of the few Return to Ravnica (RTR) cards to maintain last weekend’s price bump and potentially go a little higher.

2. Depending on where you look, Olivia Voldaren has either double or tripled in price during the past week. It appears to be the finisher of choice in the Jund decks that took two of the top 8 slots of the most recent SCG Open. I do not think there is much room for Olivia to grow, but I also think she has a high floor as a tribal legend combined with her competitive viability. This makes her highly liquid, and I would still feel safe acquiring some this weekend.

3. Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice is $20 on SCG, doubling from the $10 it was last week. I do not know why, as the card had a very poor weekend from a results standpoint, with only three copies in the top 32 of the SCG Open, and two copies in the top 8 of the TCG 5k event. I would get rid of this card as soon as possible, before people realize the extent of its price inflation.

4. MOO. Thragtusk was everywhere last weekend, helping a myriad of different strategies fight off the zombie menace. Despite a second event deck printing, its $15 on SCG and over $18 using TCG mid. I feel like this is the card’s ceiling given its additional printings, and would get rid of any extras you have sooner rather than later.

5. Sublime Archangel finally saw competitive play in various G/W and U/W aggressive decks including the winner of the TCG Player 5k. This card was between $17-20 without posting any results (it’s sold out on SCG at $20 now). I will be targeting them this weekend, because I think we’ve seen its floor.

6. Geist of Saint Traft is over $26 using TCG mid. This is one of the most powerful cards in the format, and has one of the highest ceilings of anything that’s Standard legal. That said I’m not sure how well it fits in a format filled to the brim with creatures. Geist is one of the most important cards to keep tabs on in the coming weeks, if midrange begins to be pushed out by control decks which Geist destroys it could spike hard.

7. Sigarda, Host of Herons has seen some play in various G/W and G/W/x decks and I expect this to continue. Its price has gone up from what it was during the summer, but there is still room for the card to grow. I think she will hit $15-20 retail during the next 6 months.

8. I wish there was an appropriate joke to make about Armada Wurm. In a world without titans, two 5/5s with trample is the next best thing. I don’t think the card has much room to grow with a price tag of $17-20 but I don’t hate it at that price either because it isn’t replaceable. Nothing provides that amount of power for only six mana besides a miracled Entreat the Angels. My biggest concern would be Angel of Serenity replacing it in some decks, but the difference in mana cost as well as Armada Wurm’s synergy with Restoration Angel makes me think it will have a home for the foreseeable future.

9. Bonfire of the Damned isn’t the cool kid anymore. I’d keep an eye on its price during the coming weeks. The card is too powerful to not see play in Standard. It could be a buy-low candidate very soon, and is another great trade target when getting rid of RTR cards.

10. Vraska the Unseen will be a great buy low once everyone has gotten the copies they need for casual decks and cubes. That time is not now, even at $20-25, she still has room to fall.

Last Word

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius is $8 on Legit MTG. In a world where Trostani, Selesnya’s Voice is as high as $20, and Olivia Voldaren is between $15-18 this seems like something that will remedy itself fairly quickly. Of course every card needs a home, which is the reason the new Niv-Mizzet is as cheap as he is.

I think the best place to put the Dracogenius is the U/W/R Miracle deck that won the SCGOpen. It is vulnerable to a single Slaughter Games naming Entreat the Angels, as well as a single Sever the Bloodline. The deck needs more win conditions in order to stay competitive once people begin to target it with dedicated sideboard slots, and Niv-Mizzet is a great card to fill that role.

It seems like the entire Miracle deck jumped up in price last Saturday, partially due to it winning the event, and partially due to the players piloting it. I do not think many of the cards it contains will maintain their current value, and the upcoming states weekend is a great time to get rid of any extras you have already acquired. Until a second control deck emerges, (no one seems to be talking about the Bant deck that got 9th at the SCG Open), the demand for many of the cards in the deck such as Entreat the Angels, Tamiyo, the Moon Sage, and Terminus will go down once the new miracle players have their copies. The RTR cards in the deck that experienced a price bump like Hallowed Fountain, Jace, Architect of Thought, and Supreme Verdict will come down in price once enough supply has been released into the market during the coming months. It’s worth noting that Miracle’s price tag (it’s TCG mid price is over $700 as of 10/9) will keep many players away, tempering demand unless the deck becomes truly dominant.

Paul Feudo

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