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Finance in a Flash: Boxed In

Written by LegitMTG Staff on . Posted in Finance, Magic Culture

It’s good to be back.

Dragon’s Maze is an investor’s dream. Its a small set that is one-third of the only draft format it’ll be a part of, Modern Masters has been already been taking much of the public’s attention and money away from it, and M14 with its new Planeswalkers and Slivers will be out in just a month, making Dragon’s Maze’s window in the public eye startlingly small.

I love Dragon’s Maze mythics in the mid-to-long term (six to nine months). We’re likely to have scarcity issues in the secondary market during the next year, which should lead to solid gains for the set as a whole, particularly Standard staples. Cards like Blood Baron of Vizkopa could spike harder than normal if they become somewhat popular, and hit truly absurd numbers if they become a defining card of the format (a la Thragtusk).

Quick Hits

1. Progenitor Mimic is pretty sweet. It was an obvious Commander staple as soon as it was previewed and is $7-$8 with little demand outside of that format. What if it sees any kind of real Standard play outside of isolated copies in Midrange Bant lists? Yes, it will be worth literally all the money. This feels like an easy pick up to me because so much of the risk is alleviated by its casual demand.

2. Voice of Resurgence is this summer’s Bonfire of the Damned, and already causing many of the same frustrations/issues Bonfire did. While I don’t think there’s much room for the mythic deer elk man to grow, I think it will stay around $50 much longer than Bonfire did and wouldn’t feel bad picking them up to play with. Foils have the potential to be insane if the card ever takes off in Legacy, but English copies are already more than$90 on TCG and the foreign copies (Japanese, Korean, Russian) you want for eternal pimp are significantly higher than that, making investment somewhat impractical.

3. Cavern of Souls has been hovering in the low $20s for a while now, and overall interest in the card is fairly low. M14 is going to change that; remember when Cathedral of War was $6 because of the infect deck from last summer? Something similar is going to happen this July when Slivers are released in M14. Though more than likely not competitively focused, the demand will be there and Cavern’s price should go up as a result (into the $30 range).

4. This is fairly boring and has been said before but it is worth repeating: You should be actively trying to acquire as many copies of Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, the shocklands, and Supreme Verdict as possible, especially foil versions. All of these cards have strong demand outside of Standard and will only go up once RTR is out of print.

5. I strongly suggest you don’t buy those playsets of Mutavault and/or Thoughtseize that you were planning on acquiring once Modern Masters was released. Wizards is not incompetent (despite claims otherwise by the Internet), and I expect we’ll see them somewhere before the end of the year. That said, I might grab some copies of Remand, a card R&D has said is too powerful for Standard, thus limiting the places it could potentially be reprinted.

The Myths of Modern Masters

The average Modern Masters rare is $8.01 TCG Mid and the average mythic is $27.35, which makes the average rare slot out of a pack worth $10.4, and the rares/mythics from an entire box worth about $250 (all prices are from the evening of June 2 after the full spoiler was put up). The average mythic without Dark Confidant, Tarmogoyf, and Vendilion Clique is $15.97, which drops the pack price to $9 and the box price to $216.

Modern Masters eBay

Modern Masters is priced too high, and you should not be buying boxes at the current price in order to play Constructed. If someone wanted to pay retail on all the cards in the set, they already could have gotten the cards they wanted rather than a random assortment. Remember, most if not all of these rares/mythics will be going down in the short term because of an increased supply from packs/boxes being opened as well as the effects that expensive sealed product has on the secondary market. (People will be looking to recoup costs with extra cards rather than holding them for later.) Of course, there are some commons and uncommons that will add value to an opened box/ pack, but they’re going to take a bigger price hit than any of the rares/ mythics because three is more than one, and it’s much easier to open a fifth Kitchen Finks than a fifth Cryptic Command.

I concede that in the long term it’s very possible the reprinted Modern staples will be higher than they are now because of the growth of the format and the game itself, but that only makes waiting a few weeks and buying singles an even better decision.

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